Key Drivers
- Strong margins
- Negative FCF
- Low cash balances
AIAI Summary
AAON has transitioned into a capital‑intensive growth operator where upside depends on converting a record BASX‑heavy backlog into positive free cash flow and sustained mid‑30s gross margins, while near‑term valuation is at material risk if ERP/plant ramp disruptions and continued negative FCF force dilution or multiple compression.
Price Chart
Financial Metrics
Deep Analysis
Research tool. Not personalized advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights:
- •Strong margins
- •Negative FCF
- •Low cash balances
AAON delivers strong margins and ROE but faces a liquidity and cash-flow risk from very high capex and minimal cash despite elevated valuation.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights:
- •Down trending
- •Near short‑term low
- •Elevated volatility
AAON has slid roughly 20%+ over the last month, trading near the late‑March lows (2026‑03‑18–03‑20) which is short‑term oversold and may offer a lower‑risk rebound entry but faces resistance around $88–$95 and the mid‑$90s moving average, so momentum remains weak and recovery must clear those levels.
~20%+ decline over the last month with sharp downward moves since early
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights:
- •Strong sales growth
- •Margin compression
- •Production/ERP issues
AAON posted 20% sales growth and a record $1.83B year‑end backlog for 2025 but missed Q4 EPS as margins were squeezed by production ramps and ERP/underutilization, with 2026 gross margins guided to ~29–31%.
Robust bookings and backlog underpin medium‑term revenue, but near‑term stock performance may be pressured by margin headwinds and execution risks
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