AIG

AIG's investment case has shifted from “discounted balance‑sheet value” to an outcomes‑driven re‑rating hinging on execution of Convex/Onex/Everest investments and sustainable underwriting margin improvement, so investors should watch quarterly organic GI combined‑ratio trends and explicit ROE/EPS accretion metrics from those stakes as the primary catalysts. The key downside trigger remains governance/legal fallout or reserve/underwriting reversals—if either occurs, the market's skepticism will likely drive further de‑rating despite capital returns; a sustained reclaim above ~$80 on rising volume and consecutive underwriting beats would validate the new thesis.