Key Drivers
- High profitability
- Weak cash conversion
- Large receivables
AIAI Summary
Amerisafe should be reclassified from a steady high‑yield income name to an active, mid‑cycle underwriting franchise whose equity upside depends heavily on underwriting margin recovery and improved cash conversion — if the combined ratio sustainably reverts below ~92% and operating cash covers dividends, the stock is attractive; if reserve development or large‑loss severity worsens or dividends continue to outpace cash, expect meaningful downside and possible capital actions. Monitor next 2–4 quarters of combined ratio trends, operating cash flow vs. dividend payouts, and large‑loss frequency as the primary action/exit triggers.
Price Chart
Financial Metrics
Deep Analysis
Research tool. Not personalized advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights:
- •High profitability
- •Weak cash conversion
- •Large receivables
AMSF delivers strong profitability and a debt-free, capital-light profile but faces weak cash conversion, oversized receivables/deferred revenue and dividend payouts that outstrip operating cash, threatening sustainability.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights:
- •Below last month SMA
- •Support holding
- •High short-term volatility
AMSF shows short-term bearish momentum—closing $32.29 below its last month SMA (~$33.84) with support near $32.10, resistance $36.70–$37.20, and elevated volatility after a ~13% swing from $37.16 to $32.12.
Rapid ~13% drop from $37.16 to $32.12 in late
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights:
- •High ROE
- •Premiums +10.5%
- •Earnings miss
AMERISAFE reported strong ROE and premium growth but missed Q4 EPS as rising loss and expense ratios signal near-term margin pressure despite a dividend increase and falling short interest.
Underwriting momentum and a dividend hike are supportive, but margin deterioration and the Q4 miss may weigh on the stock until profitability normalizes
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