Key Drivers
- High margins
- Negative FCF
- Excessive payout
AIAI Summary
CGBD's deep P/NAV discount and high nominal yield mask deteriorating cash conversion and a payout funded well above distributable cash—making a dividend cut the most likely near‑term catalyst unless operating cash flow turns positive or JV cash contributions materialize within the next few quarters.
Price Chart
Financial Metrics
Deep Analysis
Research tool. Not personalized advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights:
- •High margins
- •Negative FCF
- •Excessive payout
CGBD displays strong reported profitability and a large tangible equity cushion versus market price but is undermined by negative free cash flow, high leverage, and an unsustainably high dividend payout.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights:
- •Mild downtrend
- •Defined support
- •Resistance cluster
Over the last month CGBD is mildly negative—close $10.97 sits ~1.4% below the last-month SMA of $11.12, with a modest ~4.9% decline from $11.54 and defined support at $10.70 vs. resistance near $11.4–$11.6.
Modest 4.9% decline from $11.54 to $10.97 over the look-back period
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights:
- •Dividend cut risk
- •Q4 earnings miss
- •Deep yield/discount
Carlyle Secured Lending faces rising dividend-cut risk after a Q4 EPS miss and consecutive net investment income declines despite an attractive P/NAV and high yield.
Expect increased downside pressure and a need to derisk positions until earnings and dividend coverage stabilize
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