Key Drivers
- Solid EBITDA generation
- Material leverage
- Cash flow sensitivity
AIAI Summary
CoreCivic has shifted from a defensive, yield-focused REIT into an execution‑sensitive operator where upside depends on timely stabilization of multiple facility activations to hit the ~$450M adjusted EBITDA target while downside is concentrated in activation delays, receivables-driven cash‑flow strain and litigation—investors should wait for sequential quarterly EBITDA/FCF improvement and resolution of Leavenworth before becoming constructive.
Price Chart
Financial Metrics
Deep Analysis
Research tool. Not personalized advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights:
- •Solid EBITDA generation
- •Material leverage
- •Cash flow sensitivity
CoreCivic shows strong EBITDA margins and attractive EV/EBITDA and P/E relative to tangible book, but material leverage, significant capex and quarter-level cash volatility create execution and liquidity risk.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights:
- •Higher highs
- •Above SMA
- •Rapid recovery
Stock is in a short-term uptrend after recovering from $16.21 to a $20.28 peak and closing $19.46 above the last month's SMA (~$18.14), with immediate resistance at $20.22–$20.28 and support near $17.40–$17.80 (stronger floor $16.21).
Rapid move from $16.21 to ~$20.28 over the last month, increasing mean-reversion risk
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights:
- •Revenue surge
- •Fund stake
- •Facility reopening
CoreCivic posted 26% revenue growth and attracted a $5M fund stake while shares lagged, and it secured a permit to reopen a 1,033‑bed Kansas facility indicating operational expansion amid mixed market sentiment.
Strong top-line momentum and added capacity support longer‑term cash‑flow upside, but weak investor sentiment may keep near‑term share performance muted
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