Key Drivers
- High profitability
- Negative equity
- Elevated multiples
AIAI Summary
FICO's business is no longer a pure cash‑generative scores franchise but a higher‑growth, execution‑sensitive software transition—investors should only re-rate the stock if platform ARR acceleration is sustained and operating cash flow stabilizes alongside clear agency (10T) adoption timelines. The key actionable trigger: watch quarterly platform ARR trends, deferred‑revenue conversion, and cash‑flow/covenant cushions—if platform bookings slow, Scores weaken, or liquidity tightens, downside could be rapid given elevated leverage.
Price Chart
Financial Metrics
Deep Analysis
Research tool. Not personalized advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights:
- •High profitability
- •Negative equity
- •Elevated multiples
FICO combines exceptional profitability and strong free‑cash‑flow generation with weak short‑term liquidity and negative equity, while elevated valuation multiples constrain the margin of safety.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights:
- •Downward momentum
- •Mean‑reversion risk
- •High volatility
Over the last month FICO has trended sharply lower—down ~16–17% from $1,350.45 to $1,127.62, trading ~12–13% below its ~$1,292 short-term average with support around $1,090–$1,115 and resistance near $1,475–$1,476, signaling continued downside risk until it reclaims ~$1,290–$1,300.
Sharp drawdown from $1,441.20 (2026-03-09) to $1,113.16 (2026-03-19) indicating elevated intraperiod volatility
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights:
- •Revenue growth
- •Capital actions
- •Competitive pricing
FICO showed robust revenue, ARR and product/market wins alongside active capital management (open‑ended $1.5B repurchase, $1.0B 2034 notes) but shares plunged on heavy selling after competitors' aggressive VantageScore 4.0 pricing, yielding mixed institutional flows.
Expect continued near‑term share volatility as investors balance clear long‑term fundamentals and buybacks/notes with mounting competitive pressure
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