Key Drivers
- Strong liquidity
- Low asset returns
- Weak cash flow
AIAI Summary
Hilltop's pivot from a mortgage‑centric model to a PlainsCapital‑ and HilltopSecurities‑anchored franchise makes NII and fee growth the primary value drivers (and justifies current capital returns), but rising provisions, weak free‑cash‑flow conversion and interest‑rate/ deposit‑beta risk are the immediate threats—monitor quarterly NII trajectory, provision run‑rates, and FCF before relying on buybacks/dividends.
Price Chart
Financial Metrics
Deep Analysis
Research tool. Not personalized advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights:
- •Strong liquidity
- •Low asset returns
- •Weak cash flow
HTH shows modest profitability and strong liquidity but very poor asset efficiency and weak free cash flow conversion as of 2025-12-31.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights:
- •Below SMA
- •Tight support
- •Resistance cluster
Since last month the stock rotated from a late‑February high ($38.82) into a short-term pullback, closing $34.63 (≈5.4% below the last‑month SMA ~$36.60) with near‑term support ~$34.4–$35.0 and resistance/mean‑reversion in the $36.6–$38.8 zone, implying ~12–13% short‑term volatility and downside risk if support breaks.
~12–13% peak‑to‑trough decline from $38.82 to ~$34.4 over the period
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights:
- •NII growth
- •Insider selling
- •Analyst "Moderate Buy"
Hilltop Holdings rose 16.9% Y/Y on stronger NII, cost discipline and a solid balance sheet despite mortgage/asset-quality headwinds, with analysts largely positive but notable insider selling and institutional trimming.
Positive operating trends support the stock but insider and institutional selling could cap near-term upside
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