Key Drivers
- High EBITDA margins
- Net‑cash position
- Large tax burden
AIAI Summary
Newmont has shifted from growth-by-scale to a cash-yielding, buyback-focused franchise, so the investment now hinges on sustained FCF (driven by gold prices and successful 2026/27 cost recovery) rather than production growth—monitor 2027 guidance and realized gold to validate the thesis, and be ready to buy on a gold-led mean reversion or trim/avoid if FCF and buybacks are cut. Key risk: higher 2026 AISC and reserve declines mean a gold-price pullback could quickly compress FCF and valuation.
Price Chart
Financial Metrics
Deep Analysis
Research tool. Not personalized advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights:
- •High EBITDA margins
- •Net‑cash position
- •Large tax burden
Newmont is highly profitable and cash-generative with strong liquidity and low net leverage supporting a modest dividend, but large tax expenses and significant long-term liabilities (plus commodity cyclicality) temper reported earnings.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights:
- •Below last-month SMA
- •Large gap down
- •Support at low
NEM is short-term bearish after closing $95.80 well below its last-month SMA (~$116.60), leaving immediate support at $95.80 and resistance at $116–$130 while an ~18% gap beneath the moving average signals either continued selling or a short-term mean-reversion opportunity if buyers emerge.
~18% gap below last-month
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights:
- •Record free cashflow
- •Analyst buy consensus
- •Guidance headwinds
Newmont delivered record cash flow and a huge share rally amid strong Q4 results and buy-side interest, but FY2026 production/cost guidance, higher capex and buyback-focused allocation introduce near-term risks and sensitivity to gold/ rates.
Strong cash generation supports upside and buybacks, but near-term production/cost guidance and rate-sensitive gold prices make the stock more volatile
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