Key Drivers
- High margins
- Excessive payouts
- Negative working‑capital
AIAI Summary
Patria's move from a boutique fee manager to a scaled alternative-asset platform materially increases long-term upside if management consistently converts pending fee-bearing AUM and delivers on FRE guidance, but that upside is now conditional on disciplined capital allocation as current >100% payout ratios, negative working capital, and PRE timing sensitivity create acute liquidity and distribution sustainability risk. Investors should monitor sequential FRE realization, payout-ratio reduction toward <100%, and PRE monetization cadence as the three make-or-break execution metrics that will validate the growth-at-risk thesis.
Price Chart
Financial Metrics
Deep Analysis
Research tool. Not personalized advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights:
- •High margins
- •Excessive payouts
- •Negative working‑capital
PAX is highly profitable and cash-generative with rising margins and negligible debt, but faces potential near-term liquidity stress and sustainability risk from negative working capital and dividend payouts that exceed earnings.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights:
- •Sustained downtrend
- •Closed at low
- •Resistance tested
Over the last month the security fell ~20% from $14.00 to $11.20, closing at the last-month low and signaling continued near-term bearish momentum with resistance at $13.10–$13.50 and immediate support at $11.20.
~20% decline from $14.00 to $11.20 over the last month, ending at the period low
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights:
- •Analyst praise
- •Technical rebound
- •Legal scrutiny
Coverage shows PAX is repeatedly highlighted as undervalued and a “buy the dip” technical play while enduring recent 10–19% selloffs, an institutional trim, and investor lawsuits.
Mixed signals: short-term upside from analyst/technical focus is offset by selling pressure and legal/institutional risk, suggesting heightened volatility ahead
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