Key Drivers
- Quarterly recovery
- High leverage
- Negative FCF
AIAI Summary
PBF should be viewed primarily as an execution-dependent cyclical refinery recovery—near-term upside hinges on Martinez restarting smoothly and full realization of the ~$230m RBI savings—rather than a durable structural transformation into renewable fuels. If restart or RBI delivery slips (or crack spreads roll over), the recent rally looks vulnerable given negative annual FCF, high inventory-driven working capital and sizeable tax/debt obligations.
Price Chart
Financial Metrics
Deep Analysis
Research tool. Not personalized advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights:
- •Quarterly recovery
- •High leverage
- •Negative FCF
PBF shows clear quarterly operating recovery (positive Q4 EBIT/EBITDA) but remains hamstrung by a full-year net loss, negative gross profit and free cash flow, heavy capex and meaningful leverage.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights:
- •Strong uptrend
- •Cleared congestion
- •Pullback risk
PBF surged from about $34.11 to $49.32 over the last month, clearing $34–$36 and $38–$40 congestion to form support while showing strong momentum but elevated short-term overbought/pullback risk toward $43–$46 or back to $38–$40.
Sharp jumps on 2026-03-19–20 suggest elevated short-term mean-reversion risk
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights:
- •Analyst bullishness
- •Insider selling
- •Cautious consensus
PBF showed upbeat analyst write-ups and conference engagement but faced heavy insider/institutional selling, a cautious broker consensus, and elevated options activity, creating mixed near-term signals.
Expect shares to remain range-bound with downside risk unless confirmed buying or strong operational catalysts emerge
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