Key Drivers
- Negative FCF
- Substantial leverage
- Heavy capex
AIAI Summary
Sunrun has evolved into a storage-first, asset-backed cash generator where investment returns now depend on sustaining ~70% storage attachment, scaling grid-service dispatch, and reliably converting EBITDA into cash via securitizations/asset sales rather than installation volume alone. Monitor quarterly cash generation, securitization spreads/pricing, and capex versus asset-sale execution—widening spreads or failed financing would quickly strain solvency given ~$14.8B debt, while stable spreads and continued storage growth materially de-risk the thesis.
Price Chart
Financial Metrics
Deep Analysis
Research tool. Not personalized advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights:
- •Negative FCF
- •Substantial leverage
- •Heavy capex
RUN shows profitable FY results and solid margins with moderate market multiples but elevated near-term financial risk from large negative free cash flow, heavy capex, substantial leverage and a weak Q4.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights:
- •Sharp downtrend
- •Defined support
- •Oversold bounce
Over the last month the stock plunged from about $20.28 to $12.22, trading in a sharp downtrend with near-term support at $11.30–$12.20, immediate resistance $13.10–$13.30 and a larger supply zone at $19–$21, signaling bearish momentum though short-term oversold bounce potential; treat rallies below $13.30 as tentative and a break under $11.30 as a fresh downside signal.
Rapid drop from ~$20.28 to $12.22 over the last month indicating heavy selling
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights:
- •Missed break-even
- •Legal investigations
- •Volatile trading
Sunrun posted mixed Q4 beats but missed operating break-even amid slowing growth, legal probes and volatile trading despite some institutional buys and CEO recognition.
Continued operating losses, legal risk and financing reliance will likely keep RUN shares volatile and hinged on near‑term cash flow and profitability improvements
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