Redwood Trust, Inc.

Fundamentals2.0
Price Action4.0
News Sentiment5.0
AI Rating
5.0

Key Drivers

  • Debt concentration
  • Cash‑flow deficit
  • Recent quarter improvement

AI
AI Summary

5.0

RWT has effectively pivoted from a legacy mortgage‑portfolio REIT into a mortgage‑banking originator/distributor where repeatable gain‑on‑sale margins can materially lift ROE and drive upside if origination volumes and securitization funding remain intact. However, extreme leverage, deeply negative free cash flow and heavy dependence on warehouse lines/securitizations mean a small widening in funding spreads or a funding disruption could rapidly force asset sales or dividend cuts—monitor SPIRE financings, warehouse utilization, and quarterly free cash flow as the critical execution/funding readouts.

MortgageBanking
FundingRisk
Leverage‍

Price Chart

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Financial Metrics

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Revenue (TTM)
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Net Income (TTM)
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EPS (Q)
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MCAP

Deep Analysis

Research tool. Not personalized advice.

Fundamental Analysis

2.0

Key Financial Insights:

  • Debt concentration
  • Cash‑flow deficit
  • Recent quarter improvement

RWT is highly leveraged with crippling cash burn and negative annual earnings despite a profitable recent quarter, raising serious refinancing and dividend‑sustainability risks.

extreme_leverage
discounted_book

Price Behavior

4.0
Research tool. Not personalized advice. Technical analysis is for informational purposes only.

Key Price Behavior Insights:

  • Clear downtrend
  • Support clustered
  • Event-driven gap

RWT has trended down over the last month from ~$6.68 in mid‑February to a $5.35 close on 2026-03-20, with a sharp single‑day breakdown on 2026-02-11 suggesting event-driven or forced selling, near-term support around $5.30–$5.40 and resistance in the $6.10–$6.70 band that caps rallies.

Bearish
WatchSupport
Support Level: $5.30–$5.40
Resistance Level: $6.10–$6.70

Sharp single-day breakdown into mid-$5s on 2026-02-11 indicating event/forced selling and elevated downside risk

Sentiment & News

5.0

Key News Insights:

  • Record origination
  • Active distribution
  • Dividend risk

Redwood is showing market momentum with record origination, active distribution and a $391M securitization, but it still trades at a steep discount with dividend sustainability hinging on distributable earnings.

momentum
valuation

Continued origination growth and successful securitizations could drive rerating, but negative margins and distributable-earnings uncertainty keep downside risk