Key Drivers
- Very high gross-margin
- Positive FCF/EBITDA
- Heavy SG&A/R&D
AIAI Summary
Supernus has shifted from a single-drug optionality story to an execution-dependent, multi-product commercial company where upside now hinges on converting high gross margins into GAAP profitability via SG&A discipline and realized Sage/Zurzuvae synergies—investors should watch sequential revenue/Rx trends for the four core products, Onapgo supply normalization, and the quarterly appearance of synergy-driven margin improvement. Failure to hit synergy targets or control integration and acquisition-driven cash burn would materially increase impairment and downside risk.
Price Chart
Financial Metrics
Deep Analysis
Research tool. Not personalized advice.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Financial Insights:
- •Very high gross-margin
- •Positive FCF/EBITDA
- •Heavy SG&A/R&D
SUPN combines very high gross margins, strong cash and low leverage with positive free cash flow and EBITDA but is weighed down by persistent operating losses due to outsized SG&A and R&D and large intangibles, making its rich valuation risky.
Price Behavior
Key Price Behavior Insights:
- •Below 21-day SMA
- •~5.8% decline
- •Established support
Last month the stock weakened—closing $47.76 below the last month's SMA (~$50.12) after a ~5.8% drop, leaving $47.76 as short-term support and $56.32 as nearby resistance, so watch for closes back above the SMA for a bullish shift or a break below $47.76 for further downside.
Moderate (~15–18%) intraperiod volatility with a sharp drop from $56.32 to $47.76 over the last month
Sentiment & News
Key News Insights:
- •Strong revenue beat
- •Product-driven growth
- •Institutional/insider exits
Supernus reported blockbuster Q4 results and record 2025 revenue driven by 40–45% growth in four key products, even as major institutions and insiders trimmed holdings in late Feb–mid Mar 2026.
The strong commercial momentum should support share-price upside, though recent institutional and insider selling may add short-term pressure on sentiment
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